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HCV Elimination Modelling

The advent of highly effective direct-acting antiviral therapies for the treatment of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) means that elimination is now firmly on the agenda, with the World Health Organization recently announcing elimination targets including:

  • A 65 percent reduction in HCV-related deaths by the year 2030
  • An 80 percent reduction in HCV incidence by the year 2030.

We are aiming to answer the following questions in a range of settings:

  • How do we determine the most cost-effective scale-up of treatments among priority groups, through different modalities, and over different time-frames?
  • How much will it cost to reach strategic targets?
  • How can the cascade of care be optimised to maximise the number of people receiving curative treatment?
  • Where are the bottlenecks?
  • Which modalities of which programs are required (e.g. mobile clinics or nurse-led models of care)?

2015-ongoing

Given the limited resources available, we will investigate what the best use of funding across the programs of prevention, testing and treatment might be to:

  • Minimise morbidity and mortality
  • Minimise new infections
  • Get as close as possible to multiple national targets.

Associate Professor Nick Scott

Contact Associate Professor Nick Scott for more information about this project.

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Project
Team

Meet the project team. Together, we are translating research into better health, for all.

Publications

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Reaching hepatitis C virus elimination targets requires health system interventions to enhance the care cascade.

Scott N, Doyle JS, Wilson DP, Wade A, Howell J, Pedrana A, Thompson A, Hellard ME

  • The International journal on drug policy
  • 07 Aug 2017
Treatment scale-up to achieve global HCV incidence and mortality elimination targets: a cost-effectiveness model.

Scott N, McBryde ES, Thompson A, Doyle JS, Hellard ME

  • Gut
  • 12 Apr 2016
Limited provision of diagnostic services to Victorians living with hepatitis C antibodies, 2001-2012: a multi-level modelling analysis.

Snow K, Scott N, Clothier HJ, MacLachlan JH, Cowie B

  • Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
  • 14 Aug 2016
The Potential Impact of a Hepatitis C Vaccine for People Who Inject Drugs: Is a Vaccine Needed in the Age of Direct-Acting Antivirals?

Stone J, Martin NK, Hickman M, Hellard M, Scott N, McBryde E, Drummer H, Vickerman P

  • PloS one
  • 25 May 2016
Assessing the cost-effectiveness of treating chronic hepatitis C virus in people who inject drugs in Australia.

Visconti AJ, Doyle JS, Weir A, Shiell AM, Hellard ME

  • Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
  • 24 Sep 2013
Modelling hepatitis C transmission over a social network of injecting drug users.

Rolls DA, Daraganova G, Sacks-Davis R, Hellard M, Jenkinson R, McBryde E, Pattison PE, Robins GL

  • Journal of theoretical biology
  • 16 Dec 2011
The role of a hepatitis C virus vaccine: modelling the benefits alongside direct-acting antiviral treatments.

Scott N, McBryde E, Vickerman P, Martin NK, Stone J, Drummer H, Hellard M

  • BMC medicine
  • 20 Aug 2015